Recent discussions have surfaced regarding the US and Israeli efforts to destabilize the Iranian regime, with claims suggesting that Israel aimed to bring populist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. Ahmadinejad, who served as Iran’s president from 2005 to 2013, is known for his fiery rhetoric against Israel. After a fallout with Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, he repositioned himself as a regime critic and advocate for the impoverished. Allegations indicate that Israel bombed a security facility near his Tehran residence to facilitate his escape from house arrest, though Ahmadinejad reportedly became apprehensive about the plan. These claims, though widely regarded as implausible or potential disinformation by Ahmadinejad’s allies or Israeli intelligence, highlight the overestimation by the US and Israel of domestic opposition to the regime and their capability to topple it through aerial assaults.
Amidst these developments, former US President Donald Trump, facing domestic discontent over escalating gas prices, sought to distance himself from the conflict but considered additional airstrikes to compel Tehran into compliance. On Monday, he mentioned postponing an attack following Gulf leaders’ intervention, yet engaged in an extended conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday, discussing the possible renewal of hostilities. When questioned about Israel’s potential actions against Iran, Trump expressed strong confidence in Netanyahu, stating, “Netanyahu will do whatever I want him to do. He’s a great guy, To me he is a great guy.” Trump also emphasized his desire to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, denying any pressure related to the midterms and expressing patience with the situation.
Meanwhile, Tehran remains steadfast in its refusal to meet Washington’s demands concerning domestic uranium enrichment, opting instead to focus on lifting sanctions in exchange for ending the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. In response, the US has imposed a counter-blockade on Iran’s ports to hinder oil shipments primarily destined for China, Iran’s largest export market. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned of expanding the conflict beyond the region if US assaults resume. Iranian media have approached the report with skepticism, asserting that Ahmadinejad was not under house arrest at the time.
During the initial Israeli strikes on February 28, rumors circulated in Iranian media that Ahmadinejad had been killed in an attack on his residence. It was later confirmed through satellite images that a security outpost near his home in Narmak, northeast Tehran, had been targeted, with Ahmadinejad reportedly sustaining minor injuries while his bodyguards lost their lives. Speculation arose that Ahmadinejad might leverage the chaos to reassert his political influence. Despite his controversial stance on Israel and Holocaust denial, making him an unlikely ally for Netanyahu, Ahmadinejad’s authority waned after a 2011 dispute with Khamenei, and he faced arrest in 2018 for criticizing his successor, Hassan Rouhani’s government.
Ahmadinejad has been persistently barred from running for the presidency again, including in the 2024 elections, and has largely kept a low profile since then. In a notable shift, he reportedly visited pro-Israel Hungary in June to deliver a lecture, one of his rare international trips post-presidency, indicating a possible softening of his views. This visit, reportedly sanctioned by the Iranian government, underscores the evolving dynamics of Ahmadinejad’s political stance and international interactions.